The odds
as of Oct 24, 22:20 UTC- Morgan Stanley 83% −4.5
- Goldman Sachs 9% +4
- JPMorgan Chase 2.5% −2
- Citigroup 2.5% —
- Bank of America 1.5% —
- No Listed Underwriter 1.5% −1
Traded today$760
Traded in all$42K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
Morgan Stanley, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 18: 82% · Oct 19: 82% · Oct 20: 82% · Oct 21: 84% · Oct 22: 84% · Oct 23: 88% · Oct 24: 86%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Morgan Stanley; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Morgan Stanley serves as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. If two or more underwriters are presented on the cover of the final prospectus as jointly occupying the lead-left position, such that no single underwriter is uppermost-and-leftmost (for example, two names sharing equal top billing), then each such underwriter's outcome resolves to $1/(the number of tied underwriters), rounded down, for “Yes”, and “No” will be paid $1 minus the Yes value.
Settlement sources: SEC EDGAR database filings
See it on Kalshi ↗