The odds
as of Oct 27, 07:31 UTC- Above 1.250M 81% −16
- Above 1.300M 84% −3
- Above 1.350M 81% +18
- Above 1.400M 81% +39
- Above 1.450M 21% +6
- Above 1.500M 78% —
- Above 1.550M 24% +23
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$23K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+34 pts
Above 1.300M, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 20: 50% · Oct 21: 88% · Oct 22: 88% · Oct 23: 88% · Oct 24: 88% · Oct 25: 49% · Oct 26: 74% · Oct 27: 85%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 1.300M; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the value of US building permits (total units) for October 2026 is above 1.300M (SAAR), then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first-published U.S. building permits value for October 2026, as released in the Census New Residential Construction report and reflected by Trading Economics on the initial release date. Later revised, final, or updated building permits releases, including the revised permits release approximately one week later, will not be used for resolution.
Settlement sources: Trading Economics
See it on Kalshi ↗