The odds
as of Oct 19, 13:28 UTC- December 31 20% —
- October 31 13% —
- October 21 3.2% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$35K
Traded in all$35K
Favourite, 7 days−4.5 pts
December 31, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 18: 16% · Oct 19: 20%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence).
Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count.
A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.
A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗