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Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Goldman Sachs 94% ▲+86Which countries will qualify for LA28 men's lacros… Great Britain 86% ▲+71Biletnikoff Award Finalists Malachi Toney 94% ▲+69Bank of Brazil decision in November? 25 bps decrease 17% ▼−65Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026? Exactly 5 cuts 70% ▲+60NASCAR Cup Series Champion Kyle Larson 86% ▲+53Men's Kopa Trophy Winner 2026 Pau Cubarsí 18% ▼−52Streamer Awards: Best Content Group Core 47% ▲+46Wirges vs Slavikova Angelina Wirges 77% ▲+45Al Ain vs Tractor Tabriz Al Ain 48% ▲+41Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut? 1480+ 39% ▼−39In which month will Anthropic IPO? November 2026 90% ▲+36Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Lula, Eizenkot, Dems 46% ▲+35Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-W… October 31 20% ▼−34
PolymarketCloses July 1, 2027

Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut?

A ladder on one number: the likeliest rung is 1470+ at 79% on Polymarket, as of Oct 26, 17:24 UTC. It's down 12 points in the last 24 hours.

1470+ 79% ▼ 12 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 26, 17:24 UTC
  • 1470+ 79% −12
  • 1480+ 39% −39
  • 1490+ 19% −31
  • 1500+ 10% −6.4
  • 1510+ 5.1% +1

A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$7K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+7.5 pts

1470+, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 24Oct 2679%

Oct 24: 86% · Oct 25: 82% · Oct 26: 79%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro (released October 23, 2026), including its Highspeed variant, listed under a name or model identifier that includes "Kimi" and "K3.1", regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, or reasoning or effort labels. For example, Kimi K3.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, or kimi-k3.1-pro, including with a label such as "(Max)" or "(High)", would qualify, while other models, such as Kimi K3 (Max), Kimi K2.8 Preview, or any later Kimi version, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Settlement sources: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

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