The odds
as of Nov 4, 13:16 UTC- At least 44% 95% —
- At least 46% 95% —
- At least 48% 95% +5
- At least 50% 93% −2
- At least 52% 92% +29
- At least 53% 83% +35
- At least 54% 35% +10
- At least 56% 6% −6
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$10K
Traded in all$38K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
At least 48%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 90% · Oct 29: 95% · Oct 30: 95% · Oct 31: 95% · Nov 1: 95% · Nov 2: 95% · Nov 3: 95% · Nov 4: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 48%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election is 48% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by David Crowley ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Settlement sources: Wisconsin Elections Commission, Madison, WI
See it on Kalshi ↗