The odds
as of Nov 4, 13:16 UTC- At least 40% 71% +19
- At least 42% 71% —
- At least 44% 69% —
- At least 46% 36% −58
- At least 48% 6% −80
- At least 50% 1.5% −60
- At least 52% 1% −41
- At least 53% 1% −24
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$33K
Traded in all$40K
Favourite, 7 days+19 pts
At least 40%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceHow it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 40%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Greg Abbott in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election is 40% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Greg Abbott ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Settlement sources: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Austin, TX
See it on Kalshi ↗