The odds
as of Oct 27, 05:25 UTC- Alberto Núñez Feijóo 82% +1
- Pedro Sánchez 13% −2
- Santiago Abascal 3.5% +4
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 20: 80% · Oct 21: 80% · Oct 22: 79% · Oct 23: 79% · Oct 24: 80% · Oct 25: 80% · Oct 26: 80% · Oct 27: 81%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 27, 05:25 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Alberto Núñez Feijóo; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Alberto Núñez Feijóo becomes Prime Minister of Spain as a result of government formation following the next Spanish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Aug 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
Settlement sources: Congress of Deputies; King of Spain
See it on Kalshi ↗