The odds
as of Oct 24, 19:17 UTC- Maintain current rate 51% −5.5
- Hike 1-25bps 14% +7
- Hike more than 25bps 7.5% —
- Cut more than 25bps 5% +4
- Cut 1-25bps 1% —
Traded today$19K
Traded in all$32K
Favourite, 7 days−22 pts
Maintain current rate, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 17: 74% · Oct 18: 74% · Oct 19: 54% · Oct 20: 60% · Oct 21: 57% · Oct 22: 62% · Oct 23: 62% · Oct 24: 46%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Maintain current rate; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the South African Reserve Bank takes the action of maintain current rate at its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
Settlement sources: South African Reserve Bank; Trading Economics
See it on Kalshi ↗