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KalshiCloses January 1, 2027

Marco Rubio announces departure as Secretary of State?

Before Jan 1, 2029 leads at 95% (about 10 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Nov 5, 23:15 UTC. It's up 10 points in the last 24 hours.

Before Jan 1, 2029 95% ▲ 10 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 5, 23:15 UTC
  • Before Jan 1, 2029 95% +10
  • Before Jul 1, 2028 86% —
  • Before Jan 1, 2028 82% —
  • Before Oct 1, 2027 63% —
  • Before Jul 1, 2027 56% −4
  • Before Apr 1, 2027 44% −45
  • Before Jan 1, 2027 22% −6

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$40K
Traded in all$41K
Favourite, 7 days+3 pts

Before Jan 1, 2029, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 29Nov 597%

Oct 29: 92% · Oct 30: 92% · Oct 31: 91% · Nov 1: 91% · Nov 2: 91% · Nov 3: 91% · Nov 4: 93% · Nov 5: 97%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Marco Rubio leaves (or announces he will leave) as Secretary of State before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. Leaving only another role, such as National Security Advisor, does not count. Being considered for or named to another position, or announcing a campaign for office, does not count unless the announcement states or clearly communicates that Marco Rubio will cease to be Secretary of State. A departure that takes effect at the end of the current presidential term on Jan 20, 2029 does not count, including a statement that he will serve until then, that he will not serve in the next administration, or that he will take another office beginning then. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.

Settlement sources: Marco Rubio; The Wall Street Journal; Bloomberg News; The Washington Post; the Associated Press; Fox News; Reuters; United States Department of State; the White House; CNN; the New York Times; Politico; Financial Times; MSNBC; NBC; ABC; CBS; CNBC; ABC News Australia; Deutsche Welle; BBC

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