The odds
as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC- Exactly 0 cuts 95% —
- Exactly 1 cut 3.5% —
- Exactly 2 cuts 1.5% —
- Exactly 15 cuts <1% —
- Exactly 4 cuts <1% —
- Exactly 16 cuts <1% —
- Exactly 12 cuts <1% —
- Exactly 14 cuts <1% —
Traded today$11K
Traded in all$10.3M
Favourite, 7 days+0.7 pts
Exactly 0 cuts, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 95% · Sep 29: 95% · Sep 30: 95% · Oct 1: 96% · Oct 2: 95% · Oct 3: 95% · Oct 4: 95% · Oct 5: 95%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Exactly 0 cuts; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).
Settlement sources: Federal Reserve
See it on Kalshi ↗