The odds
as of Oct 21, 14:25 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2029 14% −36
- Before Jan 1, 2030 14% —
- Before Jan 1, 2028 13% —
- Before Jan 1, 2027 4.5% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$83K
Traded in all$83K
Favourite, 7 days−36 pts
Before Jan 1, 2029, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 20: 44% · Oct 21: 14%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Onion Futures Act has been completely repealed after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. For this market, complete repeal requires a bill to become law eliminating both prohibitions in 7 U.S.C. section 13-1(a): futures trading in onions futures trading in motion-picture box-office receipts, including any related index, measure, value or data Repealing only one prohibition does not qualify. The repeal may be standalone, an amendment, or part of a larger bill. Enactment counts even if the repeal takes effect later.
Settlement sources: Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗