The odds
as of Nov 5, 15:17 UTC- Chance of yes 47% +4
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$54K
Yes, 7 days+20 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 30% · Oct 29: 28% · Oct 30: 31% · Nov 1: 31% · Nov 2: 31% · Nov 3: 30% · Nov 4: 31% · Nov 5: 31%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity year-over-year growth is above 3% in any quarter of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first non-preliminary release for each quarter will be considered. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
See it on Kalshi ↗