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KalshiCloses January 20, 2029

Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?

Pete Hegseth leads at 70% (about 7 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Nov 5, 23:15 UTC. It's down 2 points in the last 24 hours.

Pete Hegseth 70% ▼ 2 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 5, 23:15 UTC
  • Pete Hegseth 70% −2
  • Kash Patel 23% +4
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 17% +1
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+24 pts

Pete Hegseth, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 29Nov 570%

Oct 29: 47% · Oct 30: 47% · Oct 31: 51% · Nov 1: 47% · Nov 2: 51% · Nov 3: 73% · Nov 4: 70% · Nov 5: 70%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Pete Hegseth; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the individual holding the title of Secretary of Defense at the time of Issuance is the first within the HHS Secretary, the Secretary of Defense, and the FBI Director to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes. The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. The person who held the position at market issuance must be the one who leaves (not a successor). Officials can leave office through resignation, firing, removal, impeachment and removal, or any other process by which they cease to hold the position. A change in the name of an office, including renaming the Secretary of Defense as the Secretary of War, does not constitute leaving that position. The first official to leave triggers resolution for all markets in the set - the one who left resolves to Yes, all others resolve to No. In the event of death, the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death, unless such a price is not available, not logically consistent, or not representative of a fair settlement value, in which case the Exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.

Settlement sources: The New York Times; AP; White House

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