The odds
as of Nov 6, 06:26 UTC- Q4 2025 2.7% +4
- Q1 2026 2.6% —
- Q4 2024 1.7% —
- Q3 2025 1.4% —
- Q2 2025 1% +1
- Q1 2025 <1% —
Traded today$526
Traded in all$521K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Q4 2025, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 29: 2.4% · Oct 30: 2.3% · Nov 2: 2.5% · Nov 3: 2.7% · Nov 4: 2.6% · Nov 5: 2.7% · Nov 6: 2.7%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Q4 2025; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).
Settlement sources: NBER
See it on Kalshi ↗