The odds
as of Nov 6, 06:26 UTC- Above $200,000 96% −2
- Above $225,000 89% —
- Above $250,000 81% −5
- Above $275,000 44% −9
- Above $300,000 14% −1
- Above $325,000 6.5% —
- Above $350,000 2.5% −2
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$211K
Traded in all$533K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
Above $200,000, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 98% · Oct 31: 98% · Nov 1: 98% · Nov 2: 98% · Nov 3: 98% · Nov 4: 98% · Nov 5: 98% · Nov 6: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above $200,000; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the New York State Comptroller reports the average Wall Street bonus for 2026 is above $200,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the New York State Comptroller’s annual estimate of the average bonus for securities-industry (NAICS 523) employees working in New York City for 2026. The OSC estimate includes cash bonuses and deferred compensation for which taxes have been withheld, and excludes stock options and other deferred compensation for which taxes have not yet been withheld. Subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.
Settlement sources: New York State Comptroller
See it on Kalshi ↗