The odds
as of Nov 6, 06:26 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2028 83% +45
- Before Jul 1, 2027 21% —
- Before Jan 1, 2027 4.2% +15
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$35K
Favourite, 7 days+47 pts
Before Jan 1, 2028, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 29: 36% · Oct 30: 37% · Oct 31: 37% · Nov 2: 32% · Nov 3: 32% · Nov 4: 31% · Nov 5: 38% · Nov 6: 23%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Jessica Tisch has either officially announced their intention to leave NYPD Commissioner or has actually left NYPD Commissioner before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes upon either an official announcement of departure or actual departure from office. An announcement must be made by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the governing body of the office and reported by at least one Source Agency. Announcements of leaving more than one year from the statement do not resolve the market to Yes. Leaving office includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining office do NOT qualify. Forced departures satisfy the criterion even without prior announcement.
Settlement sources: New York City Police Department; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; NBC
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