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KalshiCloses November 1, 2026

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

Before Jan 31, 2028 leads at 79% (about 8 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 6, 19:22 UTC. It's up 6 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 6, 19:22 UTC
  • Before Jan 31, 2028 79% +6
  • Before Jun 1, 2027 61% —
  • Before Jan 1, 2027 20% −1
  • Before Dec 1, 2026 10% —
  • Before Oct 1, 2026 4% —
  • Before Aug 1, 2026 2.7% —
  • Before Sep 1, 2026 1% —
  • Before Nov 1, 2026 1% −5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$3K
Traded in all$769K
Favourite, 7 days+13 pts

Before Jan 31, 2028, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Sep 30Oct 679%

Sep 30: 74% · Oct 1: 72% · Oct 2: 72% · Oct 3: 72% · Oct 4: 80% · Oct 6: 79%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 31, 2028; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An acknowledgment that Jerome Powell will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of his legally mandated term limit does not resolve to Yes. The market resolves to Yes upon either an official announcement of departure or actual departure from office. An announcement must be made by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the governing body of the office and reported by at least one Source Agency. Announcements of leaving more than one year from the statement do not resolve the market to Yes. Leaving office includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining office do NOT qualify. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion. Forced departures satisfy the criterion even without prior announcement.

Settlement sources: the Federal Reserve; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; NBC; official government websites relevant to

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