The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Marine Le Pen 49% −2
- Édouard Philippe 19% −2
- David Lisnard 12% +3.7
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon 12% +1
- François Hollande 6.5% +1
- Gabriel Attal 2.4% —
- Sarah Knafo 1.7% −1
- Christine Lagarde 1.5% —
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$442K
Favourite, 7 days+7.5 pts
Marine Le Pen, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 44% · Sep 29: 42% · Sep 30: 44% · Oct 1: 45% · Oct 2: 48% · Oct 3: 50% · Oct 4: 49% · Oct 5: 49%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Marine Le Pen; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: the government of France
See it on Kalshi ↗