How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms?

(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 1; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of U.S. House seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party is at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records no political party designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election: Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, Unenrolled, Undeclared, nomination by petition without a party designation, a declared write-in candidacy so recorded, or an equivalent. A candidate identified with a political party does not count, including a party whose registered name contains “Independent” such as the Independent Party of Oregon, and a candidate appearing on one ballot line without a designation and another with one. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count. Only the regular general election in each of the 435 congressional districts for the term beginning January 3, 2027 counts; a special election for a 119th Congress vacancy is disregarded whenever held. No district counts twice. Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from House composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat is counted when that contest is called. Designated Media Source declarations. For United States based elections, this Contract may be resolved on an accelerated basis if (A) at least four (4) of the eight (8) Designated Media Sources have declared a winning candidate, party, or option, and (B) none of the Designated Media Sources have issued a contradictory declaration. “Designated Media Sources” are: The New York Times (NYT), The Associated Press (AP), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News. Should one of the Designated Media Sources cease to provide independent election calls, it may be replaced at the sole discretion of the Exchange. For the purposes of this clause, a source declares a winning candidate, party, or option when it makes either (i) a formal projection of victory by its centralized decision desk, or (ii) an unambiguous statement in a news article that the candidate/party/option has won. For the network sources (Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC), a declaration from a local affiliate may represent the parent network; however, a declaration from the national desk shall always supersede any affiliate’s call. In all instances, a parent network and all of its affiliates shall collectively constitute a single source for the purpose of this clause.