The odds
as of Nov 4, 03:19 UTC- Democratic party 85% +57
- Republican party 18% −50
Traded today$12K
Traded in all$75K
Favourite, 7 days+59 pts
Democratic party, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 25% · Oct 29: 26% · Oct 30: 26% · Oct 31: 24% · Nov 1: 28% · Nov 2: 28% · Nov 3: 24% · Nov 4: 75%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Democratic party; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Democratic party wins the North Carolina State Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Winning is defined as holding more seats than any other party two weeks after the State Senate is sat for the session following the election. If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to No. This market is also eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: North Carolina Senate; The New York Times
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