The odds
as of Oct 6, 15:25 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2029 71% −1
- Before Jul 1, 2028 67% —
- Before Jan 1, 2028 54% —
- Before Jul 1, 2027 47% +2
- Before Apr 1, 2027 33% −1
- Before Jan 1, 2027 14% −4
- Before Dec 1, 2026 7% +1
- Before Nov 1, 2026 2.5% −1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$63K
Traded in all$22.8M
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
Before Jan 1, 2029, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 72% · Sep 30: 72% · Oct 1: 71% · Oct 2: 70% · Oct 3: 71% · Oct 4: 71% · Oct 5: 71% · Oct 6: 71%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗