The odds
as of Nov 4, 13:16 UTC- Chance of yes 3.9% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$62K
Yes, 7 days+2 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 1.9% · Oct 29: 1.7% · Oct 30: 5.6% · Oct 31: 5.1% · Nov 1: 4.7% · Nov 2: 4% · Nov 3: 4% · Nov 4: 3.9%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf Greenland has held an independence referendum after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 whose outcome is a majority of voters vote for independence, then the market resolves to Yes. A referendum to join another country will also be considered as an independence referendum for this purpose.
Settlement sources: the government of Greenland; the New York Times
See it on Kalshi ↗