The odds
as of Oct 20, 23:20 UTC- Michelle Bowman 8.9% +4
- Kevin Hassett 8% —
- Stephen Miran 7.2% +3.4
- Judy Shelton 4% —
- Philip Jefferson 3.9% —
- Marc Sumerlin 3.5% —
- Lorie Logan 3.4% —
- James Bullard 3.3% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$243K
Favourite, 7 days+4 pts
Michelle Bowman, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 13: 4.7% · Oct 14: 4.7% · Oct 15: 4.7% · Oct 16: 4.7% · Oct 17: 4.7% · Oct 18: 4.7% · Oct 19: 4.7% · Oct 20: 4.7%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Michelle Bowman; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Michelle Bowman is nominated as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027. then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗