The odds
as of Nov 9, 04:20 UTC- Chance of yes 58% +38
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$30K
Yes, 7 days+31 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 2: 27% · Nov 3: 27% · Nov 4: 27% · Nov 5: 27% · Nov 6: 27% · Nov 7: 24% · Nov 8: 24% · Nov 9: 31%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf humans have a self-sufficient colony of at least 10 people residing on Mars for at least one Earth year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Reuters; The Washington Post; Semafor; The Information; The Wall Street Journal; BBC News; CNN; NBC News; CBS News; ABC News; Fox News; MSNBC; Scientific American; Nature; Science Magazine; Space News; SpaceflightNow; Space.com; NASA; the European Space Agency; SpaceX; the China National Space Administration; Roscosmos; the Indian Space Research Organisation; the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency; Blue Origin; Virgin Galactic; the Mars Society; the Planetary Society; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News
See it on Kalshi ↗