The odds
as of Oct 8, 17:24 UTC- Below 4.00% 2.5% +0.7
- Below 4.10% 1.9% —
- Below 4.20% 2.6% +0.6
- Below 4.25% 2.4% —
- Below 4.30% 2.3% −1
- Below 4.35% 5.5% +0.5
- Below 4.40% 6.5% —
- Below 4.45% 4.5% −8
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$81K
Favourite, 7 days−10 pts
Below 4.50%, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 1: 19% · Oct 2: 19% · Oct 3: 19% · Oct 4: 19% · Oct 5: 19% · Oct 6: 19% · Oct 7: 19% · Oct 8: 8.5%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
See it on Polymarket ↗