The odds
as of Oct 12, 19:22 UTC- Before Jan 20, 2029 22% +3
- Before Jan 1, 2028 16% —
- Before Jan 1, 2027 2% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$190K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
Before Jan 20, 2029, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 5: 23% · Oct 6: 24% · Oct 7: 24% · Oct 8: 24% · Oct 9: 24% · Oct 10: 24% · Oct 11: 22% · Oct 12: 22%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 20, 2029; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If, as part of Section IV of the 25th Amendment, the Vice President (and a majority of the Cabinet or some other body designated by Congress) transmit to Congress a written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: The New York Times
See it on Kalshi ↗