The odds
as of Nov 5, 06:26 UTC- Chance of yes 4% −1
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$31K
Yes, 7 days−2.5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 28: 6.5% · Oct 29: 6.5% · Oct 30: 6.5% · Oct 31: 6.5% · Nov 1: 4.5% · Nov 2: 4.5% · Nov 3: 4.5% · Nov 5: 4.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf Stripe and Advent International (collectively) announces an agreement to acquire PayPal before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must involve a definitive, binding agreement accompanied by public announcement. Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, or agreements in principle do not qualify. The deal does not need to close as long as an agreement has been announced. Regulatory blocking or later cancellation does not affect resolution. Cross-border transactions qualify if a definitive agreement is announced. Internal reorganizations, joint ventures, or minority investments do not qualify unless they involve controlling ownership transfer. The acquisition can be structured as asset purchases, stock purchases, tender offers, SPAC combinations, or takeover agreements. Transactions involving subsidiaries qualify, but those limited solely to assets or divisions must represent the majority of operations or equity control.
Settlement sources: Securities and Exchange Commission; ABC; CNBC; The Guardian; Bloomberg; The Wall Street Journal; Financial Times; Reuters; the New York Times; BBC
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