The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Above $4.80 69% −1
- Above $5.00 32% —
- Above $5.20 18% +8
- Above $5.40 12% +3
- Above $5.60 8.1% −10
- Above $5.80 6% —
- Above $6.00 7% —
- Above $6.20 5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$80K
Favourite, 7 days+11 pts
Above $4.80, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 57% · Sep 29: 57% · Sep 30: 39% · Oct 1: 25% · Oct 2: 34% · Oct 3: 40% · Oct 4: 50% · Oct 5: 43%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above $4.80; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If average regular gas prices for New York are strictly greater than $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: AAA
See it on Kalshi ↗