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PolymarketCloses January 20, 2029

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

The market puts it at 68% — about 7 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 13, 12:40 UTC. It's down 9 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 68% ▼ 9 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 13, 12:40 UTC
  • Chance of yes 68% −9
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$111K
Yes, 7 days−4.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 5Oct 1368%

Oct 6: 72% · Oct 7: 71% · Oct 8: 71% · Oct 9: 78% · Oct 10: 70% · Oct 11: 77% · Oct 12: 77% · Oct 13: 68%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
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