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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2028

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31, 2027?

Druzkhivka leads at 69% (about 7 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Nov 12, 13:16 UTC. It's down 3 points in the last 24 hours.

Druzkhivka 69% ▼ 3 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 12, 13:16 UTC
  • Druzkhivka 69% −3
  • Kramatorsk 42% −8.5
  • Sloviansk 38% −16
  • Sumy 20% —
  • Zaporizhia 19% —
  • Kherson 16% —
  • Kharkiv 12% −2

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$5K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−7 pts

Druzkhivka, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Nov 4Nov 1269%

Nov 5: 76% · Nov 6: 75% · Nov 7: 76% · Nov 8: 76% · Nov 9: 73% · Nov 10: 73% · Nov 11: 60% · Nov 12: 69%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of the specified city or settlement between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Settlement sources: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Kx9MMw32sFDPUt8f9

See it on Polymarket ↗

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