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PolymarketCloses December 31, 2026

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

December 31 leads at 82% (about 8 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Nov 8, 11:14 UTC.

December 31 82%

The odds

as of Nov 8, 11:14 UTC
  • December 31 82% —
  • November 30 61% —
  • November 22 51% —
  • November 15 40% —
  • November 8 24% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$54K
Traded in all$54K
Favourite, 7 days+5 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Nov 8Nov 882%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period is between market creation and the specified date (Iran Standard Time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (Iran Standard Time) after the most recent qualifying military action. Military actions occurring before market creation are not qualifying military actions. Where no qualifying military action has occurred after market creation, the first day of the 14-day period will be the date of market creation (Iran Standard Time). The period runs through 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the 14th calendar day. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. To allow for the reporting of any qualifying military action occurring within a 14-day period, that period will not be considered completed until 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date following its 14th day; only qualifying military actions occurring within the 14-day period will be considered for that period. If multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a potentially-qualifying incident at that time, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
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