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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

The market puts it at 7.5% — a long shot, about one in 13 — on Polymarket, as of Nov 11, 04:18 UTC. It's down 16 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 7.5% ▼ 16 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 11, 04:18 UTC
  • Chance of yes 7.5% −16
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$28K
Yes, 7 days−17 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Nov 3Nov 118%

Nov 4: 23% · Nov 5: 20% · Nov 6: 20% · Nov 7: 23% · Nov 8: 23% · Nov 9: 16% · Nov 10: 25% · Nov 11: 7.5%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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