The odds
as of Oct 27, 15:27 UTC- November 30 97% −1.7
- November 7 90% +2
- October 31 67% +5.5
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$25K
Traded in all$67K
Favourite, 7 days−2.5 pts
November 30, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 21: 98% · Oct 22: 99% · Oct 23: 99% · Oct 24: 98% · Oct 25: 98% · Oct 26: 97% · Oct 27: 97%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any full calendar day between the day of market creation and the specified date, inclusive (Paris time), passes without any curfew in effect in any part of the City of Paris, France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A calendar day passes without any curfew in effect if, at no point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM Paris time on that day, a curfew is in effect in any part of the City of Paris.
The City of Paris refers to the municipality (commune) of Paris, within its official municipal boundaries.
A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A curfew of any scope will count, whether citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of the City of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will count so long as it applies to at least part of the City of Paris.
Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not be considered curfews for the purposes of this market. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not be considered curfews unless they also impose a curfew as defined above.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗