The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Gadi Eizenkot 48% +1
- Benjamin Netanyahu 35% +2
- Naftali Bennett 9% −3
- Itamar Ben Gvir 7% —
- Yossi Cohen 5% —
- Benny Gantz 4% —
- Israel Katz 4% —
- Yuli Edelstein 4% —
Traded today$35K
Traded in all$398K
Favourite, 7 days−5 pts
Gadi Eizenkot, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 51% · Sep 29: 49% · Sep 30: 49% · Oct 1: 49% · Oct 2: 46% · Oct 3: 48% · Oct 4: 45% · Oct 5: 49%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Gadi Eizenkot; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Gadi Eizenkot becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Oct 27, 2027, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
Settlement sources: Knesset
See it on Kalshi ↗