The odds
as of Oct 6, 17:22 UTC- 5.07% or above 82% −1
- 5.08% or above 87% −9
- 5.09% or above 86% −8
- 5.1% or above 89% −4
- 5.11% or above 68% —
- 5.12% or above 63% −7
- 5.13% or above 61% —
- 5.14% or above 48% −16
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+39 pts
5.1% or above, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 66% · Oct 2: 82% · Oct 3: 78% · Oct 4: 76% · Oct 5: 87% · Oct 6: 71%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 5.1% or above; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.09% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 5-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.
Settlement sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury
See it on Kalshi ↗