The odds
as of Oct 27, 05:25 UTC- 4.2% 46% +12
- 4.1% 30% +2
- 4.3% 18% −9.5
- 4.0% 4.8% —
- 4.4% 2.9% −2
- ≥4.6% <1% —
- 4.5% <1% —
- ≤3.8% <1% —
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+3.5 pts
4.2%, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 20: 42% · Oct 21: 41% · Oct 22: 33% · Oct 23: 38% · Oct 24: 36% · Oct 25: 34% · Oct 26: 40% · Oct 27: 46%
The same question on Kalshi
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 27, 05:25 UTC.
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
See it on Polymarket ↗