The odds
as of Nov 6, 17:15 UTC- Ding Xuexiang 20% −4
- Li Qiang 13% +8
- Zhao Leji 13% −1
- Li Xi 11% −2
- Chen Jining 9% +4
- Cai Qi 2.5% +2.6
- Li Ganjie 1.1% —
- He Lifeng 1.1% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$41K
Favourite, 7 days−2.5 pts
Ding Xuexiang, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 23% · Oct 31: 23% · Nov 1: 23% · Nov 2: 23% · Nov 3: 23% · Nov 4: 23% · Nov 5: 22% · Nov 6: 20%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Ding Xuexiang; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Ding Xuexiang is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves when the first new non-interim leader is officially announced by the party or credible sources. The person need not have taken office before the deadline date, only be announced as the incoming leader. Interim or acting leaders do not qualify unless they are subsequently announced as the permanent leader. If multiple persons are simultaneously announced as co-leaders, the market resolves proportionally. Leadership contests that extend beyond the deadline date without an announcement resolve to No. The announcement must come from official party channels or be confirmed by multiple credible news sources.
Settlement sources: The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; Bloomberg News; NBC
See it on Kalshi ↗