The odds
as of Oct 7, 21:24 UTC- Andy Beshear 88% −1
- Ted Cruz 85% —
- Gavin Newsom 76% −1.5
- J.D. Vance 71% −5.6
- Rahm Emanuel 69% —
- Josh Shapiro 67% +28
- Andrew Yang 67% —
- Wes Moore 66% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$100K
Favourite, 7 days−0.7 pts
Andy Beshear, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 30: 88% · Oct 1: 89% · Oct 2: 89% · Oct 3: 88% · Oct 4: 89% · Oct 5: 89% · Oct 6: 89% · Oct 7: 88%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗