The odds
as of Nov 5, 11:16 UTC- At least 52% 87% −7
- At least 54% 96% +19
- At least 56% 2% −24
- At least 58% 1% −5
- At least 60% 2% +1
- At least 62% 1% —
- At least 64% 1% —
- At least 66% 1% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$32K
Traded in all$37K
Favourite, 7 days+13 pts
At least 54%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 29: 87% · Oct 30: 87% · Oct 31: 87% · Nov 1: 83% · Nov 2: 80% · Nov 3: 47% · Nov 4: 95% · Nov 5: 92%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 54%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Senate election is 54% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Andy Barr ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Settlement sources: State Board of Elections, Frankfort, KY
See it on Kalshi ↗