The odds
as of Oct 28, 17:18 UTC- Clarence Thomas 92% +51
- Samuel Alito 59% +1
- John Roberts 18% —
- Sonia Sotomayor 8.1% —
- Elena Kagan 5% —
- Amy Coney Barrett 4.5% —
- Ketanji Brown Jackson 3.5% —
- Brett Kavanaugh 3% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$8K
Traded in all$117K
Favourite, 7 days+46 pts
Clarence Thomas, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 21: 46% · Oct 22: 46% · Oct 23: 46% · Oct 24: 46% · Oct 25: 46% · Oct 26: 43% · Oct 27: 43% · Oct 28: 92%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Clarence Thomas; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Clarence Thomas resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes.
Settlement sources: Supreme Court
See it on Kalshi ↗