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KalshiCloses May 6, 2029

2028 popular vote margin of victory?

Democratic by 9.0% or more leads at 24% (about 2 in ten) on Kalshi, as of Oct 9, 05:28 UTC. It's up 2 points in the last 24 hours.

Democratic by 9.0% or more 24% ▲ 2 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 9, 05:28 UTC
  • Democratic by 9.0% or more 24% +2
  • Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99% 18% −2
  • Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99% 10% —
  • Republican by 9.0% or more 9.5% —
  • Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99% 6.5% —
  • Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99% 6.5% —
  • Democratic by 4.0% to 4.99% 5.5% —
  • Democratic by 3.0% to 3.99% 5.5% —
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$109K
Favourite, 7 days+2 pts

Democratic by 9.0% or more, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Oct 1Oct 923%

Oct 1: 22% · Oct 6: 22% · Oct 8: 22% · Oct 9: 23%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Democratic by 9.0% or more; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certificates of ascertainment are sent to Congress for a state, the one Congress counts is used. If Congress rejects all certificates for a state, the most recently issued one is used. Votes cast for a candidate under multiple party nominations are aggregated. If the winner changes party affiliation between the election and being sworn in, the market resolves based on their Election Day party. If no party wins the popular vote (exact tie at 0.00%), all markets resolve to No.

Settlement sources: United States Congress

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