The odds
as of Nov 5, 10:17 UTC- At least 30% 66% —
- At least 32% 51% —
- At least 34% 79% −12
- At least 36% 41% +27
- At least 37% 9% −30
- At least 38% 2% −10
- At least 40% 1.5% −10
- At least 42% 1.5% −1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$23K
Traded in all$36K
Favourite, 7 days−5.5 pts
At least 34%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 29: 84% · Oct 30: 85% · Oct 31: 77% · Nov 1: 86% · Nov 2: 88% · Nov 3: 86% · Nov 4: 64% · Nov 5: 65%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 34%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial election is 34% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Steve Hilton ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Settlement sources: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Sacramento, CA
See it on Kalshi ↗