The odds
as of Oct 9, 07:34 UTC- At least 48% 96% −1.5
- At least 49% 95% +1
- At least 50% 85% −1
- At least 51% 64% −5
- At least 52% 57% −6
- At least 53% 30% —
- At least 54% 31% +19
- At least 55% 3.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$20K
Traded in all$32K
Favourite, 7 days+46 pts
At least 48%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 5: 96% · Oct 6: 98% · Oct 7: 98% · Oct 8: 98% · Oct 9: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 48%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 48% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is Flávio Bolsonaro's share of the valid votes cast in the second round (runoff), calculated as votes received divided by total valid votes cast, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided by the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions in the Contract, resolution uses certified official results from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, not preliminary results. Invalid, spoiled, blank, and rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
Settlement sources: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
See it on Kalshi ↗