The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Anthony Fauci 28% +1
- John Brennan 26% +2
- Leon Black 17% —
- Letitia James 16% −2
- Lisa Cook 14% —
- James Clapper 14% —
- Peter Strzok 13% —
- Jack Smith 12% +4.7
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$1.7M
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
Anthony Fauci, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 28% · Sep 29: 30% · Sep 30: 28% · Oct 1: 28% · Oct 2: 27% · Oct 3: 28% · Oct 4: 28% · Oct 5: 28%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Anthony Fauci; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Anthony Fauci has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges. For groups of individuals, charges against any member of the specified group trigger the criterion.
Settlement sources: the New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg; Reuters; Axios; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; Semafor; The Information; Politico; NBC; CNN; ABC; CBS; MSNBC; BBC; NPR
See it on Kalshi ↗