Moving
Mistral Large 4: Text Arena Debut? 1430+ 8% ▼−85100 Thieves vs. Shopify Rebellion 100 Thieves 96% ▲+59Ucv Moquegua vs Cienciano Cienciano 96% ▲+53Baycurrent Classic: Top 20 Finishers Jordan L. Smith 75% ▲+43Bank of Mexico Decision in November? No change 54% ▼−41Virtus Bologna vs Bayern Munich Bayern Munich 31% ▼−38ENJOY vs. MORROW ENJOY 89% ▲+38Rivadeneira Gallegos vs Salazar Daniel Salazar 85% ▲+37Black Phoenix vs. Sinners Sinners 57% ▼−35Steam: Weekly Top Seller Gears of War: E-Day 27% ▼−32Sri Lanka Emerging Players vs BBK Partnership Sri Lanka Emerging Players 95% ▲+32Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greec… December 31 39% ▲+31Rocks vs Eastern Storm Rocks 72% ▲+30ATP Shanghai Winner Sebastian Baez 64% ▲+30
PolymarketCloses July 1, 2027

Mistral Large 4: Text Arena Debut?

A ladder on one number: the likeliest rung is 1430+ at 8% on Polymarket, as of Oct 8, 19:23 UTC. It's down 85 points in the last 24 hours.

1430+ 8% ▼ 85 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 8, 19:23 UTC
  • 1430+ 8% −85
  • 1450+ 3.5% −68
  • 1470+ 2.5% −25
  • 1490+ 2.4% −16

A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$32K
Traded in all$34K
Favourite, 7 days−74 pts

1430+, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 7Oct 810%

Oct 7: 76% · Oct 8: 9.5%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mistral AI's Mistral Large 4 model, when added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control), has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be Mistral Large 4 (released in public preview on October 6, 2026), identified by a name or model identifier that includes "Mistral" and "Large" with a version designation of 4 or 4.0, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors — for example, mistral-large-4-0 or Mistral-Large-4.0. Models with any other version designation, such as Mistral Large 3 or a later Mistral Large 4.1, and models whose name does not include "Large," such as Mistral Medium 3.5 or Ministral, Magistral, Codestral, Devstral, Pixtral, or Voxtral models, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model is added to the leaderboard by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Settlement sources: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

See it on Polymarket ↗

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