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KalshiCloses January 21, 2029

Will Trump resign during his term?

The market puts it at 20% — about 2 in ten — on Kalshi, as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC. It's up 1 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC
  • Chance of yes 20% +1
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$461K
Yes, 7 days−2.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 520%

Sep 28: 22% · Sep 29: 18% · Sep 30: 19% · Oct 1: 19% · Oct 2: 17% · Oct 3: 17% · Oct 4: 22% · Oct 5: 20%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
If the President of the United States elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources: Office of the Presidency

See it on Kalshi ↗

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