The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2027 7% −1
- Before Sep 1, 2026 5% —
- Before Dec 1, 2026 3.5% −1
- Before Oct 1, 2026 2% —
- Before Nov 1, 2026 2% —
- Before Aug 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$825
Traded in all$1.3M
Favourite, 7 days−3.5 pts
Before Jan 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 8.5% · Sep 29: 7.5% · Sep 30: 7.5% · Oct 1: 8% · Oct 2: 8.5% · Oct 3: 4.5% · Oct 4: 7% · Oct 5: 7%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Settlement sources: Anthropic
See it on Kalshi ↗