The odds
as of Oct 19, 01:37 UTC- Above 170 96% +3
- Above 180 80% +3
- Above 185 71% —
- Above 190 49% +1
- Above 195 33% —
- Above 200 23% +3
- Above 205 16% +1
- Above 210 11% +1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$16K
Traded in all$30K
Favourite, 7 days+8 pts
Above 170, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 16: 93% · Oct 17: 95% · Oct 18: 96% · Oct 19: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 170; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Panama Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 170 from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗