The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Before Nov 4, 2026 14% −1
- Before Sep 1, 2026 <1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$317K
Favourite, 7 days−2.5 pts
Before Nov 4, 2026, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 19% · Sep 29: 18% · Sep 30: 17% · Oct 1: 17% · Oct 2: 16% · Oct 3: 14% · Oct 4: 14% · Oct 5: 14%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Nov 4, 2026; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.
Settlement sources: Federal Register; the White House; the President of the United States
See it on Kalshi ↗