The odds
as of Nov 5, 21:14 UTC- before April 2027 70% —
- before December 50% +31
- before 2027 46% +6
- before November 6% —
- before October 2% —
- before September 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$935
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts
before April 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 29: 71% · Oct 30: 71% · Oct 31: 71% · Nov 1: 71% · Nov 2: 71% · Nov 3: 70% · Nov 4: 70% · Nov 5: 70%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, before April 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Beam Therapeutics Inc. submits a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Food and Drug Administration; Beam Therapeutics
See it on Kalshi ↗